1. This everyone knows. The attractiveness of the Brazilian interest rates creates a purely speculativecapital flows. Two weeks ago, analysis showedthat even part of the direct investments were only supposed to cover production for the simple application of short-term financial market.
2. Everyone knows that if those flows come with the exchange rate at a level and then return with alower exchange, they earn their times: the interestand the exchange difference.
3. The solution we all know: to reduce the interest rate. Obvious! But why should the government do this? Elementary. For two reasons. a) a hugecurrent account deficit in balance of payments, which will this year to some $ 60 billion, projects ascenario of uncertainty in the case of a reflection of speculative capital. b) The use of the exchange as a means of controlling inflation through imports.
4. But how could we resolve this dilemma?Elementary. With the federal government produceda strong fiscal surplus and neutralizing those twotendencies in the event of falling interest rates.Why did not he? Simple answer. For fiscal populism.
5. This goes for comfort by creating a bubble thatis growing very ... Well .., it is expected that from happening.
Cesar Maia
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