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Mostrando postagens com marcador economy. Mostrar todas as postagens

Paulo Guedes says in the US that he will deliver Banco do Brasil to Bank of America


Economy Minister Paulo Guedes said in a speech yesterday in the US that he will hand over Banco do Brasil to Bank of America, as well as handing Embraer to Boeing.

It is assault on the open estate.
Thieves!

Tradução

"As vezes caio, mas me levanto e sigo em frente, nunca desisto, porque a mão que me ampara não é a do cão, é a de Cristo"
Vida que segue...

The repeated follies of the tax game in Brazil



Give to find any logic in economic policy. Not even the most optimistic of the parents of the inflation targeting system could dream of a subordination so broad and unrestricted to the model as to defy any metric of common sense.

Yesterday, the Ministry of Planning and National Treasury announced the new central government fiscal target for 2015: primary deficit of R $ 51.8 billion, or 0.9% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product).

On top of this amount, the nation of botocudos knees to bow at the altar of ratings agencies, asking forgiveness for the sins of fiscal indiscipline.

If the deficit is caused by the frustration of revenue, which is due to the decline in activity levels in any country above the equator down 3% of GDP justify the primary deficit and resort to a looser fiscal policy to prevent the deepening recession.

This way, no.

Let a few numbers contrast with panic.

The estimate for total revenue in 2015 is R $ 1.256 trillion. The stock of the Federal Public Debt (DPF) is R $ 2.734 trillion. So if you have to cover the deficit by issuing bonds, the impact on the DPF will be 1.85%.

Let the most comparisons.

In September the government issued R $ 75.5 billion in new securities. Of this total, the interest expense was R $ 34.9 billion. In other words, in just one month, interest consumed 67.8% of the primary deficit forecast for the year.

In the 12 months through July, paid up R $ 452 billion in interest, or R $ 34.7 billion a month. From January to September, R $ 277.3 billion. In 2010, the interest account was R $ 200.5 billion.

This subordination reaches an irrational prescription is proof of 9 underdevelopment built over centuries. There is no other explanation for monetary policy, in broad recessionary environment, which restricts all credit and is willing to pay 14.25% of the basic interest rate. And that under the pretext of controlling inflation which is exclusively the result of price shock, exchange rates and dammed.
If all goes well, next year the gross debt / GDP will be over 70%. And all the logic of the tax adjustment is to control the growth of this relationship.

This pantomime has no end. Earlier this year, the Central Bank economists reported studies proving scientifically that interest rates would have immediate effect and almost painless on inflation. In the country of jabuticaba, according to the wise men of BC, the Phillips curve (which relates unemployment and inflation) would require a minimum sacrifice employment to take effect.

Weeks ago, they rectified studies, assuming that the sacrifice dose was underestimated. Simple, discreet self-criticism in a game that stirs the fate of millions of people.

Worse, there is no reactions in sight. The market knows that monetary policy is suicidal. But just understand its limits to bill now with interest and later with the arbitration exchange when the economic picture unravel.

And with the debt / GDP ratio at 70%, one more reason to require layoff budget cuts in the Bolsa Família, health and education.

The different paths of China and Brazil

The trip to China Rousseff is a good time to review the outcome of historical mistakes and successes.

In 1994, China and Brazil were the balls of the timein major world transformations. Both continental countries with large populations - China's vastlylarger - ready to build a market for mass consumption, in a time of structural change in the mode of global production. Advances in telematicsand logistics had produced a revolution in themode of production of multinationals, ending thehistoric model of supply chain near the endmanufacturer.

There was a relocation of industrial units in somecontinents, using global suppliers.

In the new economic geography, Brazil and China presented themselves as natural candidates tohost countries of final assembly plants. Especiallyafter that with the economic stability brought by theReal, an army of new consumers entered the market.

When Brazil was booked care markets in LatinAmerica and Africa. Besides being made into an export base for the northern countries.
Luis Nassif

Economy

The words of Minister Guido Mantega on thegovernment's decision to continue takingmeasures against inflation and appreciation of the real, are welcome and have our support and I believe the society. Just as the government's decision, reiterated yesterday by Mantega, to really achieve the surplus of 3% in 2011.

The question, however, is more complex andrequires the government of not daring to raise rates, not allowing the pressure to resume amonetary policy where the only instrument tocontain inflation is rising interest rates, without considering the economic growth and employment.Also because the world situation and the ongoingwar exchange are a product of U.S. monetary policy and exchange rate policy of China. Not to mention that the European recession, more warsand insurrections in the Arab world, have createdan exceptional situation and new demands from usthat creativity, boldness and long-term strategy, notwhat we lack, and not the views of heads ofspreadsheet that our monetary policy hasdominated for so many years.